Demographics
After establishing that facts are useless, I have a lot of facts to show you.
Let us check the demographic history of the recent world. It's pretty interesting. I spent a while gathering up figures, mostly from Wikipedia, and some sporadic Googling. As far as I can tell the figures look pretty reliable.
I recently wrote about how 37% of births in France are Africans. How many people is that? Let's take a look at the number of live births in France.
1900
917,075
1910
828,140
1920
838,137
1930
754,020
1940
561,281
1950
862,310
1960
819,819
1970
850,381
1980
800,377
1990
762,407
2000
774,782
2010
802,224
2014
783,000
783,000 in 2014, of which 37.2 are Africans. That makes 291,276 Africans born in France in 2014, for 491,724 mostly white French. What does that mean in the long run though? I found a way of comparing birth rates to present populations, to get an idea. The average life expectancy in most of the develop world is around 80 years old. So just multiply the number of births by 80 to get the "projected population". Of course this assumes stable number of births over 80 years, which is a very stupid assumption. But it does serve our purposes to understand what 783,000 births in a year actually mean. What would it look like if France kept having 783,000 births every year? So let's just multiply the above chart per 80 to see what happens.
Projected
Population after 80 years
1900
73,366,000
1910
66,251,200
1920
67,050,960
1930
60,321,600
1940
44,902,480
1950
68,984,800
1960
65,585,520
1970
68,030,480
1980
64,030,160
1990
60,992,560
2000
61,982,560
2010
64,177,920
2014
62,640,000
So in an imaginary world, in which 1900 birth rates had remained constant forever, France would have had a population of 73 million French. With 1950 birth rates, you get 68 million French. If 2014 birth rates were constant, in 80 years we'd have a population of 62 million. The catch is of those 62 million, 39 million are french, and 23 million are African. And of course it will only get worse.
Let's take a look at some other countries.
Germany
Births
Births x 80
1900
1,944,139
155,531,120
1910
1,876,778
150,142,240
1920
932,929
74,634,320
1930
1,144,000
91,520,000
1940
1,402,258
112,180,640
1950
1,116,835
89,346,800
1960
1,261,614
100,929,120
1970
1,047,737
83,818,960
1980
865,789
69,263,120
1990
905,675
72,454,000
2000
766,999
61,359,920
2010
677,947
54,235,760
2014
714,966
57,197,280
The figures for 1900 are 1910 are somewhat misleading, as they include Poles, but still, Germany in 1900 was on truck to having a population of 155 million. As of 2014, Germany will shrink to 57 million, of which a big proportion will be Africans and Arabs (I'll call the Turks as Arabs for dramatic effect). The rising birth rate from 2010 hints that it's not Germans doing the breeding. So see again: a rising empire of 155 million (!) declining into a sad nation of perhaps 40-something million.
Spain
Births
Births x 80
1900
627,848
50,227,840
1910
646,975
51,758,000
1920
623,339
49,867,120
1930
660,860
52,868,800
1940
631,285
50,502,800
1950
565,378
45,230,240
1960
663,375
53,070,000
1970
663,667
53,093,360
1980
571,018
45,681,440
1990
401,425
32,114,000
2000
397,632
31,810,560
2010
485,252
38,820,160
2014
426,303
34,104,240
Spain's case isn't as dramatic as Germany, but still pretty bleak. On track for 53 million s late as 1970, not they'll be lucky to get to 30 million.
Netherlands
Births
Births x 80
1900
162,611
13,008,880
1910
170,766
13,661,280
1920
192,987
15,438,960
1930
182,310
14,584,800
1940
184,846
14,787,680
1950
229,718
18,377,440
1960
239,128
19,130,240
1970
238,912
19,112,960
1980
181,294
14,503,520
1990
197,965
15,837,200
2000
206,619
16,529,520
2010
184,397
14,751,760
2014
174,507
13,960,560
The Netherlands, on track for 19 million by 1970, now perhaps half that.
United Kingdom
Births
Births x 80
1900
1,091,000
87,280,000
1910
975,000
78,000,000
1920
824,000
65,920,000
1930
793,000
63,440,000
1940
793,000
63,440,000
1950
962,000
76,960,000
1960
918,286
73,462,880
1970
903,907
72,312,560
1980
753,708
60,296,640
1990
798,612
63,888,960
2000
679,029
54,322,320
2010
807,271
64,581,680
2014
776,400
62,112,000
Damn, the Brits were crazy back in 1900. 87 million! No wonder they left to Australia and beyond. However the English race won't blight the Earth any longer, as it's barely projected to number 40 million by 2094, while South Asians and Africans take their place. I do think the English could thrive under Islam though. The English have always been a religious people. And while alcohol might be tough to forsake, it's probably for their own good. And they'd be free to bugger boys with abandon. That more than compensates for the prohibition of beer. So cheers for Londonistan.
Poland
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
890,400
71,232,000
1930
1,022,811
81,824,880
1940
849,873
67,989,840
1950
763,108
61,048,640
1960
669,485
53,558,800
1970
545,973
43,677,840
1980
692,798
55,423,840
1990
545,817
43,665,360
2000
378,348
30,267,840
2010
413,300
33,064,000
2014
375,160
30,012,800
No figures for Poland before WW1, but wow, 1930 Poles were breeding like rabbits. 81 million projected! Hitler and Stalin took care of that, and the Cathedral gave the final blow. Poles will be lucky to be 30 million people at this rate. But hey, at least they're not invaded by foreigners. Yet.
Finland
Births
Births x 80
1900
86,339
6,907,120
1910
92,984
7,438,720
1920
84,714
6,777,120
1930
75,236
6,018,880
1940
65,849
5,267,920
1950
98,065
7,845,200
1960
82,129
6,570,320
1970
64,559
5,164,720
1980
63,064
5,045,120
1990
65,549
5,243,920
2000
56,742
4,539,360
2010
60,980
4,878,400
2014
57,232
4,578,560
Finland had its peak in 1910, with 7.4 million projected. Now it's down to 4.5 million. But it's all perhaps for the best. It's a nasty piece of real estate they got up there. One wonders how the hell did they plan to feed 7 million Finns. Unfortunately Finland is now starting to bringing Muslims into the Arctic, so they'll have to deal with that. The Arabs may not breed that much up there. It's cold and dark, and they don't drink. Finns should make a documentary about miserable Arabs in the Arctic Winter, just for fun.
Hungary
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
249,000
19,920,000
1930
220,000
17,600,000
1940
185,562
14,844,960
1950
195,567
15,645,360
1960
146,461
11,716,880
1970
151,819
12,145,520
1980
148,673
11,893,840
1990
125,679
10,054,320
2000
97,597
7,807,760
2010
90,335
7,226,800
2014
91,150
7,292,000
The same as Poland, Hungary went crazy after WW1. All the wars and craziness of independence must have made them very optimistic about the future. Or maybe it was an Afghan style "gotta breed some more to raise soldiers to kill our enemies". Again Communism took care of that, and US overlordship gave the final blow. Hungary today has a projected population of almost 1/3 of its 1920 peak.
Croatia
Births
Births x 80
1900
97,000
7,760,000
1910
99,000
7,920,000
1920
-
1930
-
1940
-
1950
95,560
7,644,800
1960
76,156
6,092,480
1970
61,103
4,888,240
1980
68,220
5,457,600
1990
55,409
4,432,720
2000
43,746
3,499,680
2010
43,361
3,468,880
2014
39,566
3,165,280
Croatia follows the Eastern European pattern. It's no wonder the Habsburg empire was having so much trouble. The minorities were breeding so much! They were fortunate to lose to the Communists so that they all lost interest in human existence. Croatians were busy fighting for independence from Serbians, but apparently haven't realized that for Croatia to exist it needs some Croatians. Guess the saying it's true, the only worse thing than not getting what you want, is getting what you want.
Let's now venture outside Europe.
USA
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
2,377,000
190,160,000
1940
2,559,000
204,720,000
1950
3,632,000
290,560,000
1960
4,257,000
340,560,000
1970
3,731,386
298,510,880
1980
3,612,258
288,980,640
1990
4,158,212
332,656,960
2000
4,058,814
324,705,120
2010
3,999,386
319,950,880
2014
3,985,924
318,873,920
If I'm not mistaken the US didn't get much immigration from 1925 to 1965, so the increase in births is staggering. By 1960 the projected population was 340 million. And that was 90% white. Alas by now white births are half the total, so about 2 million, which gives 160 million whites in 80 years.
Japan
Births
Births x 80
1900
1,470,000
117,600,000
1910
1,782,000
142,560,000
1920
2,105,000
168,400,000
1930
2,085,000
166,800,000
1940
2,100,164
168,013,120
1950
2,337,507
187,000,560
1960
1,627,939
130,235,120
1970
1,955,277
156,422,160
1980
1,576,889
126,151,120
1990
1,221,585
97,726,800
2000
1,194,000
95,520,000
2010
1,083,000
86,640,000
2014
1,001,000
80,080,000
Japan today is the oldest country on Earth, but the most important part is how fast the demographic transition was. In 1950 there were 2.3 million Japanese being born. That projects a population of 187 million! Well that didn't happen. Japan is barely producing 1 million babies per year, which adds nicely to 80 million. Not bad, but of course it may get worse before it gets better. But as long as they keep the borders closed it'll be a nice place.
Russia
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
4,412,000
352,960,000
1940
3,814,000
305,120,000
1950
2,859,000
228,720,000
1960
2,662,135
212,970,800
1970
1,903,713
152,297,040
1980
2,202,779
176,222,320
1990
1,988,858
159,108,640
2000
1,266,800
101,344,000
2010
1,788,948
143,115,840
2014
1,947,301
155,784,080
Say what you will about Stalin but his subjects in 1930 were breeding like champs. 4.4 million births! That would add up to 350 million Russians. Which is sorta inaccurate, as the Russian life expectancy doesn't get to 80 years, not by a mile, but still. Note also the very impressive recovery since 2000. Russia seems to be doing well at continuing to be Russia. And no I won't accept that it's all the Caucasian and Turkic Muslims doing all the breeding unless you give me their birth data.
China
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
-
1940
-
1950
20,232,000
1,618,560,000
1960
13,915,000
1,113,200,000
1970
27,356,000
2,188,480,000
1980
17,868,000
1,429,440,000
1990
23,910,000
1,912,800,000
2000
17,710,000
1,416,800,000
2010
15,920,000
1,273,600,000
2014
16,870,000
1,349,600,000
Dumb people tend to ask why China did something so evil as the One Child Policy. Well by 1990 China was projected to have 1,9 billion people. And now it doesn't. There's still almost 17 million Chinese being born every year, so they're doing ok. But good for Deng.
India
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
-
1940
-
1950
16,832,000
1,346,560,000
1960
19,086,000
1,526,880,000
1970
25,577,000
2,046,160,000
1980
27,566,000
2,205,280,000
1990
26,388,000
2,111,040,000
2000
27,191,000
2,175,280,000
2010
27,064,000
2,165,120,000
2014
27,379,500
2,190,360,000
While China dodged the bullet, India didn't manage to. It took the bullet squarely into their heads. Look at those figures. 27 million Indians are being born every year. Let that sink into your head for a while. Twenty Seven Million. Every Year. Now almost half of India is malnourished as it is, imagine when this kids grow up. No way India is going to raise feed 2 billion people. The famines are going to be something to behold. I wonder what Raspail thinks of these figures.
Iraq
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
-
1940
-
1950
327,000
26,160,000
1960
343,000
27,440,000
1970
475,000
38,000,000
1980
571,000
45,680,000
1990
719,000
57,520,000
2000
960,000
76,800,000
2010
1,079,000
86,320,000
2014
-
While even India is keeping the births more or less stagnant, take a look at this. Iraq's births have tripled in 60 years. Tripled. At this rate there'd be 86 million Iraqis on earth. The Tigris and Eufrates are nice but they can't feed 86 million people. I doubt they carry enough water for 86 million Arabs to drink. Where will these people go?
Egypt
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
-
1940
697,700
55,816,000
1950
904,941
72,395,280
1960
1,113,888
89,111,040
1970
1,161,539
92,923,120
1980
1,569,247
125,539,760
1990
1,687,000
134,960,000
2000
1,751,854
140,148,320
2010
2,261,409
180,912,720
2014
2,720,495
217,639,600
Well the same place the Egyptians are going to go. Egypt is insane. 2.7 million births last year. At this rate there'll be 217 million Egyptians. They're going to eat the pyramids. If the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't blow them up before they do.
Nigeria
Births
Births x 80
1900
-
1910
-
1920
-
1930
-
1940
-
1950
1,821,000
145,680,000
1960
2,202,000
176,160,000
1970
2,081,000
166,480,000
1980
3,642,000
291,360,000
1990
4,446,000
355,680,000
2000
5,606,000
448,480,000
2010
7,000,000
560,000,000
2014
-
I won't comment on this one. 560 million Nigerians. Hahahaha. Haha. Ha...
What's most funny is when you compare all these figures to the actual population figures, past and present.
India
Nigeria
Iraq
Egypt
Actual 1900
280,912,000
16,000,000
2,060,000
8,000,000
Actual 1950
357,561,000
29,790,000
5,158,000
21,834,000
Actual 2015
1,252,000,000
173,600,000
36,632,000
88,800,000
Projected 2094
2,190,360,000
560,000,000
86,320,000
217,639,600
India had 280 million people in 1900. At this rate it will have 2.2 billion.
Nigeria had 16 million people (by British count) in 1900. At this rate it will have 560 million.
Iraq had 2 million people in 1900. 2 million! At this rate it will have 43 times as much.
Egypt had 8 million. Damn 1900 Egypt must have been a beautiful place. Now it has 88 million, 10 times as more, and at this rate it will have 217 million.
None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I'm not going to feed them. I'm also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it's gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.
13 comments
[…] Source: Bloody Shovel […]
God, we are so fucked.
“None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I’m not going to feed them. I’m also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it’s gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.” Not to worry mang, the Cathedral's got shit [i.e. ecological overshoot, see William R. Catton's 'Overshoot' and 'Bottleneck'] covered. You see, in the existing global hierarchy, “whitey” is still at the very pinnacle of the food-chain, hence there's plenty of elbow room for “re-equilibration”. This is where Robin Hood'esque projects come into play to make things right in a world painfully scarred by memories of centuries-long alien colonial/imperial domination. Think of climate-change, multikulti/mass-immigration, affirmative action, the deconstruction of “whiteness” and a huuuuge array of other concessions, as forms of cryptoreparation—to satisfy the global surge in the quest for personal dignity, cultural respect and economic opportunity. The trick is to move somewhere very fucking cold and underpopulated, then befriend some Inuit...and live happily ever after.
Not to mention, universal access to the interwebz, radio and teevee, creates a shared envy of seeing “whitey” precariously perched atop of the food-chain—it is the youngin's of the third world that are particularly resentful and restless. Longer term, it should make any thinking person wonder who the most probable target of soft followed by eventual hard-genocide will be?
Funnily enough I read this from the Guardian today: http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/18/why-south-african-students-have-turned-on-their-parents-generation Which illustrates your genocide point well and the economic crisis (probably requiring an IMF bailout) on the horizons illustrates your food point.
Interesting article, but with all the usual dreariness: twenty years after the end of apartheid, Blacks are pissed and YT must pay and be written out of history. Racial consciousness goes to the bone.
Yeah, just looking at the copycat protests at Mizzou, Yale and elsewhere, South Africa might provide a pretty good glimpse—a fasttracked proxy-microcosm of the West at large.
It will be a great tragedy, or the largest quantity of human death and suffering. ever. It may be nearer to the "end times" from a religious standpoint. Do what the Mormons (historically) did, and keep a year or so supply of food for you and your loved ones. Also, don't tell anyone.
As angry as so many of us were at the so-called "Migrant Crisis" in 2015, these numbers show that "it *is* inevitable" -- If not now, then later, maybe even much later, but in some scenario or other, it is inevitable. The leftwing drones are correct...Unless we seize control of our own destiny again. Revivalism is yet possible.
On the small good news front, the USA has recovered to 54% of births being White, from reportedly perhaps being hitting 49.9% for the first time a few years back. See the graph at [Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013](https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/total-fertility-rates-by-race-in-the-usa-1980-2013/). U.S. Whites are no longer being vastly outbred by Nonwhites in relative terms.
[…] since facts “don’t matter”, Spandrell deluges us with Demographics. Which are, properly speaking, not facts at all (at least the prognosticated ones). He’s […]
It's all good, we'll just use crispr to make new Super crops to feed all the people.
[…] A while ago I proposed the concept of “projected population”. You get the total live births in a country, then you multiply it by 80, an approximation of life expectancy. So, assuming the level of births remains constant (which it won’t), in 80 years a country would have that amount of people. […]