Demographics

Posted by Spandrell on

After establishing that facts are useless, I have a lot of facts to show you.

Let us check the demographic history of the recent world. It's pretty interesting. I spent a while gathering up figures, mostly from Wikipedia, and some sporadic Googling. As far as I can tell the figures look pretty reliable.

I recently wrote about how 37% of births in France are Africans. How many people is that? Let's take a look at the number of live births in France.

1900

917,075

1910

 828,140

1920

 838,137

1930

 754,020

1940

 561,281

1950

 862,310

1960

 819,819

1970

 850,381

1980

 800,377

1990

 762,407

2000

 774,782

2010

 802,224

2014

 783,000

783,000 in 2014, of which 37.2 are Africans. That makes 291,276 Africans born in France in 2014, for 491,724 mostly white French. What does that mean in the long run though? I found a way of comparing birth rates to present populations, to get an idea. The average life expectancy in most of the develop world is around 80 years old. So just multiply the number of births by 80 to get the "projected population". Of course this assumes stable number of births over 80 years, which is a very stupid assumption. But it does serve our purposes to understand what 783,000 births in a year actually mean. What would it look like if France kept having 783,000 births every year? So let's just multiply the above chart per 80 to see what happens.

Projected

Population after 80 years

1900

 73,366,000

1910

 66,251,200

1920

 67,050,960

1930

 60,321,600

1940

 44,902,480

1950

 68,984,800

1960

 65,585,520

1970

 68,030,480

1980

 64,030,160

1990

 60,992,560

2000

 61,982,560

2010

 64,177,920

2014

 62,640,000

So in an imaginary world, in which 1900 birth rates had remained constant forever, France would have had a population of 73 million French. With 1950 birth rates, you get 68 million French. If 2014 birth rates were constant, in 80 years we'd have a population of 62 million. The catch is of those 62 million, 39 million are french, and 23 million are African. And of course it will only get worse.

Let's take a look at some other countries.

Germany

Births

Births x 80

1900

 1,944,139

 155,531,120

1910

 1,876,778

 150,142,240

1920

 932,929

 74,634,320

1930

 1,144,000

 91,520,000

1940

 1,402,258

 112,180,640

1950

 1,116,835

 89,346,800

1960

 1,261,614

 100,929,120

1970

 1,047,737

 83,818,960

1980

 865,789

 69,263,120

1990

 905,675

 72,454,000

2000

 766,999

 61,359,920

2010

 677,947

 54,235,760

2014

 714,966

 57,197,280

The figures for 1900 are 1910 are somewhat misleading, as they include Poles, but still, Germany in 1900 was on truck to having a population of 155 million. As of 2014, Germany will shrink to 57 million, of which a big proportion will be Africans and Arabs (I'll call the Turks as Arabs for dramatic effect). The rising birth rate from 2010 hints that it's not Germans doing the breeding. So see again: a rising empire of 155 million (!) declining into a sad nation of perhaps 40-something million.

Spain

Births

Births x 80

1900

 627,848

 50,227,840

1910

 646,975

 51,758,000

1920

 623,339

 49,867,120

1930

 660,860

 52,868,800

1940

 631,285

 50,502,800

1950

 565,378

 45,230,240

1960

 663,375

 53,070,000

1970

 663,667

 53,093,360

1980

 571,018

 45,681,440

1990

 401,425

 32,114,000

2000

 397,632

 31,810,560

2010

 485,252

 38,820,160

2014

 426,303

 34,104,240

Spain's case isn't as dramatic as Germany, but still pretty bleak. On track for 53 million s late as 1970, not they'll be lucky to get to 30 million.

Netherlands

Births

Births x 80

1900

 162,611

 13,008,880

1910

 170,766

 13,661,280

1920

 192,987

 15,438,960

1930

 182,310

 14,584,800

1940

 184,846

 14,787,680

1950

 229,718

 18,377,440

1960

 239,128

 19,130,240

1970

 238,912

 19,112,960

1980

 181,294

 14,503,520

1990

 197,965

 15,837,200

2000

 206,619

 16,529,520

2010

 184,397

 14,751,760

2014

 174,507

 13,960,560

The Netherlands, on track for 19 million by 1970, now perhaps half that.

United Kingdom

Births

Births x 80

1900

 1,091,000

 87,280,000

1910

 975,000

 78,000,000

1920

 824,000

 65,920,000

1930

 793,000

 63,440,000

1940

 793,000

 63,440,000

1950

 962,000

 76,960,000

1960

 918,286

 73,462,880

1970

 903,907

 72,312,560

1980

 753,708

 60,296,640

1990

 798,612

 63,888,960

2000

 679,029

 54,322,320

2010

 807,271

 64,581,680

2014

 776,400

 62,112,000

Damn, the Brits were crazy back in 1900. 87 million! No wonder they left to Australia and beyond. However the English race won't blight the Earth any longer, as it's barely projected to number 40 million by 2094, while South Asians and Africans take their place. I do think the English could thrive under Islam though. The English have always been a religious people. And while alcohol might be tough to forsake, it's probably for their own good. And they'd be free to bugger boys with abandon. That more than compensates for the prohibition of beer. So cheers for Londonistan.

Poland

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 890,400

 71,232,000

1930

 1,022,811

 81,824,880

1940

 849,873

 67,989,840

1950

 763,108

 61,048,640

1960

 669,485

 53,558,800

1970

 545,973

 43,677,840

1980

 692,798

 55,423,840

1990

 545,817

 43,665,360

2000

 378,348

 30,267,840

2010

 413,300

 33,064,000

2014

 375,160

 30,012,800

No figures for Poland before WW1, but wow, 1930 Poles were breeding like rabbits. 81 million projected! Hitler and Stalin took care of that, and the Cathedral gave the final blow. Poles will be lucky to be 30 million people at this rate. But hey, at least they're not invaded by foreigners. Yet.

Finland

Births

Births x 80

1900

 86,339

 6,907,120

1910

 92,984

 7,438,720

1920

 84,714

 6,777,120

1930

 75,236

 6,018,880

1940

 65,849

 5,267,920

1950

 98,065

 7,845,200

1960

 82,129

 6,570,320

1970

 64,559

 5,164,720

1980

 63,064

 5,045,120

1990

 65,549

 5,243,920

2000

 56,742

 4,539,360

2010

 60,980

 4,878,400

2014

 57,232

 4,578,560

Finland had its peak in 1910, with 7.4 million projected. Now it's down to 4.5 million. But it's all perhaps for the best. It's a nasty piece of real estate they got up there. One wonders how the hell did they plan to feed 7 million Finns. Unfortunately Finland is now starting to bringing Muslims into the Arctic, so they'll have to deal with that. The Arabs may not breed that much up there. It's cold and dark, and they don't drink. Finns should make a documentary about miserable Arabs in the Arctic Winter, just for fun.

Hungary

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 249,000

 19,920,000

1930

 220,000

 17,600,000

1940

 185,562

 14,844,960

1950

 195,567

 15,645,360

1960

 146,461

 11,716,880

1970

 151,819

 12,145,520

1980

 148,673

 11,893,840

1990

 125,679

 10,054,320

2000

 97,597

 7,807,760

2010

 90,335

 7,226,800

2014

 91,150

 7,292,000

The same as Poland, Hungary went crazy after WW1. All the wars and craziness of independence must have made them very optimistic about the future. Or maybe it was an Afghan style "gotta breed some more to raise soldiers to kill our enemies". Again Communism took care of that, and US overlordship gave the final blow. Hungary today has a projected population of almost 1/3 of its 1920 peak.

Croatia

Births

Births x 80

1900

 97,000

 7,760,000

1910

 99,000

 7,920,000

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 -

1950

 95,560

 7,644,800

1960

 76,156

 6,092,480

1970

 61,103

 4,888,240

1980

 68,220

 5,457,600

1990

 55,409

 4,432,720

2000

 43,746

 3,499,680

2010

 43,361

 3,468,880

2014

 39,566

 3,165,280

Croatia follows the Eastern European pattern. It's no wonder the Habsburg empire was having so much trouble. The minorities were breeding so much! They were fortunate to lose to the Communists so that they all lost interest in human existence. Croatians were busy fighting for independence from Serbians, but apparently haven't realized that for Croatia to exist it needs some Croatians. Guess the saying it's true, the only worse thing than not getting what you want, is getting what you want.

Let's now venture outside Europe.

USA

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 2,377,000

 190,160,000

1940

 2,559,000

 204,720,000

1950

 3,632,000

 290,560,000

1960

 4,257,000

 340,560,000

1970

 3,731,386

 298,510,880

1980

 3,612,258

 288,980,640

1990

 4,158,212

 332,656,960

2000

 4,058,814

 324,705,120

2010

 3,999,386

 319,950,880

2014

 3,985,924

 318,873,920

If I'm not mistaken the US didn't get much immigration from 1925 to 1965, so the increase in births is staggering. By 1960 the projected population was 340 million. And that was 90% white. Alas by now white births are half the total, so about 2 million, which gives 160 million whites in 80 years.

Japan

Births

Births x 80

1900

 1,470,000

 117,600,000

1910

 1,782,000

 142,560,000

1920

 2,105,000

 168,400,000

1930

 2,085,000

 166,800,000

1940

 2,100,164

 168,013,120

1950

 2,337,507

 187,000,560

1960

 1,627,939

 130,235,120

1970

 1,955,277

 156,422,160

1980

 1,576,889

 126,151,120

1990

 1,221,585

 97,726,800

2000

 1,194,000

 95,520,000

2010

 1,083,000

 86,640,000

2014

 1,001,000

 80,080,000

Japan today is the oldest country on Earth, but the most important part is how fast the demographic transition was. In 1950 there were 2.3 million Japanese being born. That projects a population of 187 million! Well that didn't happen. Japan is barely producing 1 million babies per year, which adds nicely to 80 million. Not bad, but of course it may get worse before it gets better. But as long as they keep the borders closed it'll be a nice place.

Russia

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 4,412,000

 352,960,000

1940

 3,814,000

 305,120,000

1950

 2,859,000

 228,720,000

1960

 2,662,135

 212,970,800

1970

 1,903,713

 152,297,040

1980

 2,202,779

 176,222,320

1990

 1,988,858

 159,108,640

2000

 1,266,800

 101,344,000

2010

 1,788,948

 143,115,840

2014

 1,947,301

 155,784,080

Say what you will about Stalin but his subjects in 1930 were breeding like champs. 4.4 million births! That would add up to 350 million Russians. Which is sorta inaccurate, as the Russian life expectancy doesn't get to 80 years, not by a mile, but still. Note also the very impressive recovery since 2000. Russia seems to be doing well at continuing to be Russia. And no I won't accept that it's all the Caucasian and Turkic Muslims doing all the breeding unless you give me their birth data.

China

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 -

1950

 20,232,000

 1,618,560,000

1960

 13,915,000

 1,113,200,000

1970

 27,356,000

 2,188,480,000

1980

 17,868,000

 1,429,440,000

1990

 23,910,000

 1,912,800,000

2000

 17,710,000

 1,416,800,000

2010

 15,920,000

 1,273,600,000

2014

 16,870,000

 1,349,600,000

Dumb people tend to ask why China did something so evil as the One Child Policy. Well by 1990 China was projected to have 1,9 billion people. And now it doesn't. There's still almost 17 million Chinese being born every year, so they're doing ok. But good for Deng.

India

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 -

1950

 16,832,000

 1,346,560,000

1960

 19,086,000

 1,526,880,000

1970

 25,577,000

 2,046,160,000

1980

 27,566,000

 2,205,280,000

1990

 26,388,000

 2,111,040,000

2000

 27,191,000

 2,175,280,000

2010

 27,064,000

 2,165,120,000

2014

 27,379,500

 2,190,360,000

While China dodged the bullet, India didn't manage to. It took the bullet squarely into their heads. Look at those figures. 27 million Indians are being born every year. Let that sink into your head for a while. Twenty Seven Million. Every Year. Now almost half of India is malnourished as it is, imagine when this kids grow up. No way India is going to raise feed 2 billion people. The famines are going to be something to behold. I wonder what Raspail thinks of these figures.

Iraq

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 -

1950

 327,000

 26,160,000

1960

 343,000

 27,440,000

1970

 475,000

 38,000,000

1980

 571,000

 45,680,000

1990

 719,000

 57,520,000

2000

 960,000

 76,800,000

2010

 1,079,000

 86,320,000

2014

 -

While even India is keeping the births more or less stagnant, take a look at this. Iraq's births have tripled in 60 years. Tripled. At this rate there'd be 86 million Iraqis on earth. The Tigris and Eufrates are nice but they can't feed 86 million people. I doubt they carry enough water for 86 million Arabs to drink. Where will these people go?

Egypt

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 697,700

 55,816,000

1950

 904,941

 72,395,280

1960

 1,113,888

 89,111,040

1970

 1,161,539

 92,923,120

1980

 1,569,247

 125,539,760

1990

 1,687,000

 134,960,000

2000

 1,751,854

 140,148,320

2010

 2,261,409

 180,912,720

2014

 2,720,495

 217,639,600

Well the same place the Egyptians are going to go. Egypt is insane. 2.7 million births last year. At this rate there'll be 217 million Egyptians. They're going to eat the pyramids. If the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't blow them up before they do.

Nigeria

Births

Births x 80

1900

 -

1910

 -

1920

 -

1930

 -

1940

 -

1950

 1,821,000

 145,680,000

1960

 2,202,000

 176,160,000

1970

 2,081,000

 166,480,000

1980

 3,642,000

 291,360,000

1990

 4,446,000

 355,680,000

2000

 5,606,000

 448,480,000

2010

 7,000,000

 560,000,000

2014

 -

I won't comment on this one. 560 million Nigerians. Hahahaha. Haha. Ha...

What's most funny is when you compare all these figures to the actual population figures, past and present.

 

India

Nigeria

Iraq

Egypt

Actual 1900

 280,912,000

 16,000,000

 2,060,000

 8,000,000

Actual 1950

 357,561,000

 29,790,000

 5,158,000

 21,834,000

Actual 2015

 1,252,000,000

 173,600,000

 36,632,000

 88,800,000

Projected 2094

 2,190,360,000

 560,000,000

 86,320,000

 217,639,600

India had 280 million people in 1900. At this rate it will have 2.2 billion.

Nigeria had 16 million people (by British count) in 1900. At this rate it will have 560 million.

Iraq had 2 million people in 1900. 2 million! At this rate it will have 43 times as much.

Egypt had 8 million. Damn 1900 Egypt must have been a beautiful place. Now it has 88 million, 10 times as more, and at this rate it will have 217 million.

None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I'm not going to feed them. I'm also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it's gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.

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13 comments

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  • [] Source: Bloody Shovel []

    reply
    • God, we are so fucked.

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      • “None of this will happen, of course. Something has to give. There is not enough food to feed all those Arabs, Indians and Africans. And I’m not going to feed them. I’m also quite positive that the future brown majorities in France, Germany and England are not going to feed them either. Oh, it’s gonna be fun. Utterly miserable. But fun.” Not to worry mang, the Cathedral's got shit [i.e. ecological overshoot, see William R. Catton's 'Overshoot' and 'Bottleneck'] covered. You see, in the existing global hierarchy, “whitey” is still at the very pinnacle of the food-chain, hence there's plenty of elbow room for “re-equilibration”. This is where Robin Hood'esque projects come into play to make things right in a world painfully scarred by memories of centuries-long alien colonial/imperial domination. Think of climate-change, multikulti/mass-immigration, affirmative action, the deconstruction of “whiteness” and a huuuuge array of other concessions, as forms of cryptoreparation—to satisfy the global surge in the quest for personal dignity, cultural respect and economic opportunity. The trick is to move somewhere very fucking cold and underpopulated, then befriend some Inuit...and live happily ever after.

        reply
        • Not to mention, universal access to the interwebz, radio and teevee, creates a shared envy of seeing “whitey” precariously perched atop of the food-chain—it is the youngin's of the third world that are particularly resentful and restless. Longer term, it should make any thinking person wonder who the most probable target of soft followed by eventual hard-genocide will be?

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        • Funnily enough I read this from the Guardian today: http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/18/why-south-african-students-have-turned-on-their-parents-generation Which illustrates your genocide point well and the economic crisis (probably requiring an IMF bailout) on the horizons illustrates your food point.

          reply
          • Interesting article, but with all the usual dreariness: twenty years after the end of apartheid, Blacks are pissed and YT must pay and be written out of history. Racial consciousness goes to the bone.

            reply
            • Yeah, just looking at the copycat protests at Mizzou, Yale and elsewhere, South Africa might provide a pretty good glimpse—a fasttracked proxy-microcosm of the West at large.

              reply
            • It will be a great tragedy, or the largest quantity of human death and suffering. ever. It may be nearer to the "end times" from a religious standpoint. Do what the Mormons (historically) did, and keep a year or so supply of food for you and your loved ones. Also, don't tell anyone.

              reply
              • As angry as so many of us were at the so-called "Migrant Crisis" in 2015, these numbers show that "it *is* inevitable" -- If not now, then later, maybe even much later, but in some scenario or other, it is inevitable. The leftwing drones are correct...Unless we seize control of our own destiny again. Revivalism is yet possible.

                reply
                • On the small good news front, the USA has recovered to 54% of births being White, from reportedly perhaps being hitting 49.9% for the first time a few years back. See the graph at [Total Fertility Rates by Race in the USA, 1980-2013](https://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/total-fertility-rates-by-race-in-the-usa-1980-2013/). U.S. Whites are no longer being vastly outbred by Nonwhites in relative terms.

                  The following were the actual number of births in 2013: 2,130,000 babies born to White Non-Hispanic women (54.1%). 580,000 babies born to Black Non-Hispanic women (14.8%). 900,000 babies born to Hispanic women (22.9%). 270,000 babies born to Asian women (6.8%). 46,000 babies born to American-Indian women (1.2%).
                  reply
                  • [] since facts “don’t matter”, Spandrell deluges us with Demographics. Which are, properly speaking, not facts at all (at least the prognosticated ones). He’s []

                    reply
                    • It's all good, we'll just use crispr to make new Super crops to feed all the people.

                      reply
                      • [] A while ago I proposed the concept of “projected population”. You get the total live births in a country, then you multiply it by 80, an approximation of life expectancy. So, assuming the level of births remains constant (which it won’t), in 80 years a country would have that amount of people. []

                        reply