Brazilification

Given present demographic trends, that is immigration and the birth rates of different ethnic groups, the data clearly points towards what I call Brazilification, i.e. Western countries eventually getting the demographics of Brazil.

Now, Brazil as a country has a lot going for it; that with nice beaches and hot girls. But its demographics and its politics aren't precisely one of its strengths. Nor its murder and mugging rate. For some reason Rio de Janeiro was chosen to host the 2016 Olympics, and man, the thing is not looking good.

brazilian-police-welcome-hell-sign-640x480

I had thought that the Brazil government wasn't that stupid, and that the armed forces, if only them alone, had to enjoy high status and good pay. But no, apparently the Brazil government really is that stupid. How does that look for Brazilification of the Western world?

https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/750129507420495872

Who knows, who knows. The French are quite fond of striking too! Right now I guess this troops are well paid; but hungry and unpaid French troops holding machine guns in central Paris; well that would be something. France doesn't have a tradition of military coups; not since the great man. But one's gotta eat.

Brexit has made a lot of people write about how it symbolized the end of an era of ever greater integration and trade globalization. Now the trend is broken. The Olympic games are also a very powerful symbol of globalization, and the recent games have shown also signs of breakdown; billions stolen by corruption rackets; countries left with tons of debt and useless buildings left to decay. It won't be long until some Olympic Games really bomb it, and the whole thing is abolished for good. Now that would be a fine symbol of the end of an era.

Once at the Olympic Games, Germany was represented by German athletes, Italy by Italian athletes, the Netherlands by Dutch athletes, Belgium by Flemish and Walloon athletes, and so on. France and the United States sent biracial teams, and that's what made them distinctive. The ill-fed Third World did not send much. Nowadays, every national team has a 100-meter sprinter from Jamaica. Back then, you had young amateurs in competition, the sons of aristocrats, often even the sons or grandsons of Norman-blooded European nobility. Now, you have some felonious negro with a fast red car and a thick gold chain, a professional athlete whose leering visage disgraces the packaging of your underarm deodorant. The magic is gone. (The above is for regular readers of this blog. This parenthetical note is for polite whites who have stumbled in here. It is not very nice to speak of a "felonious negro with a fast red car and a thick gold chain," is it? Nor to suggest that he "leers." But the trouble is that that isn't much of an exaggeration, either. My words are racist, of course, but blacks are not holy personages; they, too, can be mocked en bloc. If you suspect that I held a special grudge against black sprinters from Jamaica, then you would be missing my point, which is that televising a glittering international festival every four years for the banal purpose of worshiping, once again, the glory of the athletic negro form—well, it's more than a bit silly. Our real problem is that European man, 28 percent of the world's population as recently as 1950, will on present trend drop to an aging 10 percent by 2060. This catastrophic present trend might be broken if European man only rediscovered his swagger, though, mightn't it? Maybe European man should do that. I believe that he will. Don't you? (We whites can debate, at leisure, how nice it is to speak of felonies, red cars, gold chains and black men once we have stabilized our own demographics and found again practical means of insulating ourselves and our own from negro felony. Until then, if you believe that the racists are the problem—well, candidly, you're frantic and very, very confused.)

An interesting side-note brought to mind by your mention of the French: I have it on decent authority (to wit, liasing with a French military base in Tchad) that the French officer corps is largely white, observant Catholic, and (by present French standards) reactionary in its politics. Makes me wonder about the trajectory of France.

A "largely white" officer corps in a major European Nation makes me wonder about the trajectory too. That's much worse than I had feared. I had assumed the officer corps is white.

The military is a fairly prole, low-status institution, and diverse kids are, lets face it, more manly in their disposition on average. The ranks of the French army must be quite diverse by now.

Do we have any good examples of demographic recovery? It seems like high tfr is something that is difficult/impossible to restore. I'm most interested in places like Japan, where immigration is low. If there exists a subpopulation of Japanese with high fertility, there's a decent shot at rebound. It seems plausible that the two most significant downward pressures are population density and feminism.

I've been looking for that for quite some time now; but there isn't. Nothing there. Japan just doesn't have coherent subpopulations, of any sort. No religion, cult or regional area has noticeably higher fertility. The country is stupidly uniform. The Okinawans kinda do breed a bit more, at 1.8 TFR, but that's not that much of a difference, and it's not like they're flooding the mainland. Chinese TFR fell pretty hard after the fall of the empire in 1911; then Mao called the people to breed and man, did they breed. I'd rather not hope for a Mao, though.

Of course, in the U.S. military, the "diversity" tends to be concentrated in the non-combat arms, while those who actually pull triggers and launch missiles are still overwhelmingly white. Is this true of the French military? I have no idea, but it might be important...

Well the actual combat units running the African uranium supply lines may be white by necessity; but garrisoning the homeland? And of course a large bunch of the officer ranks are political promotions, and in today's climate, diversity is a genetic badge of loyalty to the government.

Let's also be clear here: Tchad isn't exactly a prestigious appointment. Like N'Djamena, you don't have to piss anyone off to go there, but nobody wants to.

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Demographic recovery is rather common after a disaster like the black plague or the 30 year war. In these cases population dropped without a drop in fertility; recovery from a drop in fertility is more difficult. Reason for hope might be that the low fertility is a social thing which implies that it can change immediately if social conditions change. A marked increase in fertility in response to a change in social conditions has happed before, e.g. in European polulations that emigrated to the US or Canada in the last centuries.

I'm thinking less of a cultural subpopulation and more a significant set of outliers. Are there Hokkaido pioneer families with 8 kids (or something comparable)?

I missed the second half of your comment here, but Mao can easily be seen as a religious revival, leading us back to: we need a new religion. I don't think Islam is it, though. Educated, better off Muslims have TFRs as low as anyone. Turkey is going to be Kurdish, Persia is going to be empty, etc. if trends continue.

Do trends continue?

Nope. Nothing. At any rate they'd need some cultural identity to keep doing whatever it is they do. But Japan has an American-imposed religion law, with myriad of small wacky cults doing their thing: none of them has higher than average fertility.

I gotta write a post about Islam to tie the loose ends I've been leaving around. Persia will be ok, though. TFR 1.8 is enough to keep it full for 1,000 years.

On the plus side, Brazil's southernmost states are over 80% white, and seem rather nice. A global economic reset is unavoidable at this point, and a few cold winters without EBT cards will do much to reduce the monkey population. I don't know or care who will rule the tropics; it's not the white man's natural habitat. During an economic collapse, it's not safe for women to walk outside alone. That's the end of feminism, which means that white women will no longer be too busy with their careers to marry white men and bear white children.

spandrell I had thought that the Brazil government wasn’t that stupid, and that the armed forces, if only them alone, had to enjoy high status and good pay. that's a category error: the police ARE NOT the armed forces. i have no knowledge of the pay structure / status of the Brazilian Army, but domestic police and the military are entirely different things. ie - the police can be kept in line via threats of deploying the troops. once the .gov tries deploying some troops to keep OTHER troops in line, then you know they've got serious problems.

Last time the security forces had high pay and high social status in Brazil, they just ended up enacting coup d'etats and assuming direct rule of the country. The political class doesn't want to repeat that mistake, so since the 80s they are carefully impoverishing and demonizing the armed forces and the state military polices.

That's very Song Dynasty.