On shits and fans
Neoreaction is neo because it is new. There has always been a reactionary movement, descendants of De Maistre fiercely opposed to leftism, or modernity in general, but they were based on a defense of the past. In a way, old reactionaries behave in a sort of territorial way. If the past is a foreign country, reactionaries are patriots of that country. The further the culture changes, the more your country becomes a foreign one, and you naturally want to fight the invasion. So old reaction was (is) a sort of tribalism that cut across space-time.
Neoreaction is distinct because it has modern science behind it. It has HBD, which tells us that people are physically and irrevocably different, ergo societies must also be different. It naturally follows that any society that bases itself in denying reality will collapse. But of course neoreaction also feeds on cognitive science, which tells us that peoples brains are wired with dozens of cognitive biases with cloud our thinking. Perhaps the most famous one is confirmation bias, which says that people tend to find more likely to happen the things they want to happen.
Confirmation bias is so pervasive that you can find most people do it every single day, and those on the Dark Enlightenment Community (H/T to Handle) are no stranger to it. In politics, confirmation bias mostly presents itself as prophesies of doom blamed on your enemy. Doom that must surely happen during your lifetime; it's no fun if you aren't there to tell everyone 'I told ya so'.
There's an interesting discussion at our dear friends at Outside In precisely on the topic of collapse. Mr. Land has a very low opinion on the Cathedral's ability to sustain itself, and he is partial to theories of financial collapse. Now theories of financial collapse have little to do with the DEC itself, who mostly envisage a dysgenic/moral shock a la Fall of Rome. But the Internet is home to a much bigger tribe called the Austrians, and they have been preaching on evil bankstas and the Dark Lord Bernanke for 5 years already. As Land, Handle and Vladimir discuss, for 5 years we have been hearing of hyperinflation, widespread bank runs, currency collapse, debt defaults, and societal collapse. Doom, I tell you. But for 5 years nothing has happened. Well, there's a huge youth unemployment crisis all over the world (20% in South Korea!), but that's about it. So what's going on?
The short answer is that nobody knows. Macroeconomics is *the* science precisely because it's not a science. Nobody really knows what money is and how it behaves, so all you can do is develop an arcane theology about what you thing sorta makes sense. People who agree in their monetary theology, or have to suck up to their superiors to get tenure or hold their jobs will form academic tribes, and then go on for decades engaging in tribal warfare, which is the ultimate human pastime. The discussions on fiscal and monetary policy in the last 40 years are most lively and vigorous theological battles since 14th century Oxford. It is precisely when you don't know, and there's no real way to know, that cognitive bias kicks in. Humans have a hard time understanding agnosticism. Truth and beauty are fine things, but sometimes there is no truth to be found, in the same way sometimes there's nothing pretty to look at. But you never accept that, so you make up a truth by browsing your old assumptions, and you start to find that the fat girl with glasses is quite cute when you look closely. It helps that she's the only female in the office.
But of course the fact that we can't know doesn't mean that some theories aren't better than others. Some things just don't make sense. Say, Islam. Or that Diversity is our Strength. It just doesn't work like that. Ever increasing diversity combined income redistribution is not sustainable. Afghanistan's fertility rate is not sustainable. It will crash. It has to collapse. Right? There are different scenarios out there in how the Cathedral is going to evolve in the next decades. I'll use the framework of my Trichotomy to see what different opinions are:
1.- Moral collapse. The state collapses as heathen hedonists fail to breed and be productive.
2.- Ethnic war. As the economy deteriorates from leeching from foreigners, whites awaken from their false consciousness and stand together to fight the NAMs in their midst.
3.-Financial collapse. Bernanke gets off his mask and reveals that he's actually Mugabe in disguise. Of course Collapse #3 is the most attractive. It is shared with libertarians (which outnumber us 1000 to 1), the blame would fall completely in the Cathedral's incompetence, and you can hedge your risk by buying gold or Bitcoin.
Of course there's another scenario, which is that collapse doesn't happen. Esteemed commenter Vladimir, who has this habit of going into people's blog and, quite intelligently, dispute everything they say (he's the only real neoreactionary dissenter, how hardcore is that), has been feeding our thoughts with his thoughts on how the Cathedral works. His take is that the Cathedral has uncontested religious hegemony, and as long as it has it, the fabric of the state, and the serfs we call society, cannot collapse. It might deteriorate, it might become a supremely dysfunctional thing, but it won't go anywhere as long as there's no alternative that people find superior. So what we are looking at isn't the Fall of Rome, but the USSR under Brezhnev. Stable madness.
'Financial alchemy', as he calls it, will more or less solve the financial mess, the EU won't disintegrate, and people worldwide will continue to put up with diversity, feminism, homos, transexuals and any manner of disaster. This is until there is an ideology (or let's just call it a religion) that captures more hearts and minds than progressivism. While you have to admit that all the prophecies of doom are starting to sound like prophesies of the Second Coming, which seems to be taking a while, I'm not at at all sold in the idea that the Cathedral might be a permanent institution. People used to say that the USSR was here to stay, and could last 1000 years, and yet look at what happened.
Letting aside questions of arcane macroeconomic alchemy, there is one big theoretical argument against the Brezhnev in Washington scenario. Jim Donalds leftist singularity. The very nature of progressivism is not stable, and the way that leftism assigns status always tends to accelerating madness, whose end result is invariably mass murder and societal collapse. The usual examples are the USSR in the 1930s, China's Cultural Revolution, and Pol Pot's self-genocide. But even if somehow USG is going to manage that the leftist singularity doesn't kill us all, surely modern progressivism is even less sustainable than the USSR was. The USSR had a shitty economy, but it wasn't getting any worse than it was, and people are much more tolerant of economic stasis than they are of downward mobility. Not to say that the USSR was not importing tens of millions of low IQ migrants from around the world while accommodating their native cultures. In fact the USSR was a might force of Russification, spreading Russia's language and general nastiness to far away and unrelated nations such as Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan, who to this day still use Russian as the language of higher discourse.
I don't know if I'll see Harvard declare bankruptcy, the US dollar collapsing and my gold and bitcoins growing 10000% in value making me the smartest smartass among my peers. Probably not. But that doesn't mean that the Cathedral is stable. The Cathedral is subsidizing dysgenics all over the globe, and the shit seems to be slowly approaching the fan, with hardly anyone trying to push it back.
Egypt birthrate increasing just as the economy collapses and 75% of grain is imported.
Youth unemployment skyrocketing worldwide
Blacks killing British soldiers in the middle of the street.
NAMs rioting in Sweden of all places.
Nothing of this is going away unless the Cathedral gets its act together and starts cracking down on NAM behavior. Brezhnev didn't have to deal with this shit. Of course Brezhnev had a stellar law enforcement apparatus and had no qualms about using it. The Soviets weren't about anarcho-tyranny, they focused on the second half. If the Cathedral is to survive even at Soviet levels of dysfunction, it has to start letting go of the anarchy thing and double down on good old tyranny. Parts of the establishment are surely working on that, as seen by the huge surveillance apparatus that is being built in every country, and the incarceration rampage in the US. There's just so much you can do with that though, given that prisons are bursting with prisoners all over the West, and leftist judges are starting to order prisoners to be sent home. The Cathedral is not yet ready for widespread GULAGs.
It struck me that what's likely to happen is not a Brezhnevian stagnatopia, but something that came up during my first chat with Nick Land and I had forgotten since. He approvingly talked of the cognitive elite gathering in select global metropolis, tightly policed and self-quarantined à la NYC from the surrounding hinterland which will be semi-abandoned to NAM barbarism. I had envisioned the abandoned wastelands as starving into medieval densities, but that was over the top. The Cathedral is not about giving up land, and the wives and daughters of the elites need poor people to care about to justify their NPO jobs. Think of the Reservation in Brave New World, but instead of being a zoo-like small parcel of land surrounded by Civilization, think of it the other way around, as a mass of pettty barbarism surrounding small techno-commercial enclaves. Some sort of economy will still go on in the hinterland, but besides physical resources extracted by big corporations, the rest of the populace will be mostly let to their devices.
Perhaps the model is Russia, where esteemed commenter Candide III tell us:
Very bad, especially in Russia proper (Moscow is separate from Russia). Alcoholism and drug use are rampant, no jobs, everything is neglected, prison terms and inmate-derived behavior confer status, everybody listens to music glorifying prison experiences. Imagine black inner cities spread over the Russian hinterland.
As he told me once, Moscow is rich, clean, nice, classy and well policed, but drive 100 km away and the roads are collapsing from lack of maintenance, and most of the country is like that. Everyone with half a brain is either in Moscow or St. Petersburg, or out of the country altogether. The rest is the realm of vodka, meth and hilarious car accidents.
So I think it's clear that we're seeing a gradual, generalized decline, subject to black swan shocks such as 100 million Egyptians or Nigerians suddenly deciding to all move to Sicily to avoid starvation. All while the elite keeps isolating themselves in their urban bubbles, air shipping to each other the next fad in conspicuous consumption.
36 comments
I tend to agree with Vladimir, the prog memes rule mindspace so whatever happens, even if the people somehow got it together and overthrew he current bunch of progs, they will just replace them with more progs. I say this would be an improvement, because living under a competent "grow the pot" prog like Mitt Romney is obviously better than a malicious, incompetent "kill the boer" prog like Barack Jarrett.
I think, Spandrell, you mean "esteemed" rather than "estimated" in two places. You're starting to sound Chinese...
Damn, thanks. Contrary to what most people would tell you, juggling 5 languages in one brain isn't easy.
Yeah... people are always telling me that! ;-)
There's this idea that children learn language so easily that you just have to teach them anything while they're small and they'll learn effortlessly! Hence Chinese classes in trendy American schools et al. All we need to do is teach languages and we can all get along! A friend told me a Spanish proverb once, "wisdom doesn't take space". Of course it does.
Guess that explains what happened to the Spanish!!
It's worse. 1. Wisdom doesn't take space - false. 2. So Wisdom takes space, which is limited. 3. Unwisdom also takes space 4. And becomes entrenched in that space, very hard to uproot. 5. And which prevents contrary wisdom from taking root even if there is space.
Dark truths indeed.
Jesus loves me because I'm stupid.
I'm not entirely certain the cognitive elite are not already gathering in centers of civilization. NYC is positively a paradise these days. It's called gentrification. The anarchic forces continue to tug, of course... the leftier-than-thou-lefties are trying to stop Stop-n-Frisk for example, but clever solutions will always be found to keep elites safe... and holy. Wouldn't surprise me if the same sort of thing happens in Detroit in about 20 yrs or so.
I lived in NYC. If you aren't making IB money, its a pretty fucking place to live. Even being upper middle class sucks.
Yet there's no shortage of suckers like this one http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4FoAr8i26g&desktop\_uri=/watch?v=Q4FoAr8i26g
Minor correction: Moscow is rich, clean, classy and well policed (falling off from city core to outer tenement subdivisions to satellite towns to outer Russia), but not nice. Places with good customer service are few and far between even in Moscow. Standard-issue post-Soviet customer service personnel come with a surly, boorish disposition. To be fair, many if not most customers share these useful qualities. In part this is just self-defense -- few people have enough energy to be polite and pleasant when everybody around is boorish and surly -- but it cannot be denied that the cultural level (?) is generally low. Granted, it was not sky-high before the Bolshevik revolution, but a thorough destruction of traditional peasant and city culture by the Soviets, combined with mass reeducation in labor camps and Party brainwashing, left few things standing. The creation of a "new historical community" -- the "Soviet People" -- was an explicit Soviet goal, and it succeeded rather spectacularly by the end of the 60s. The territories annexed after WWII -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and western Ukraine -- took less damage, but they were lucky that the Soviet Union collapsed when they still retained some cultural and societal capital. The processes of sovietization were well underway. An additional two or three decades of Soviet rule would have probably reduced them to the general level.
Yes, I am also puzzled at the lack of inflation even with all the money printing, but then I am not an economist. Maybe the lag time is unusually long this time around. If you look at the Bay Area, it is already stratifying along rich/poor lines. In downtown San Jose, you can buy a house in the bad neighborhood for $300K. In a good neighborhood like Palo Alto or Cupertino, it would cost over a million(cupertino) or two (Palo Alto) just to get into the area. One thing to add to this thought, due to the mobility of the overlord class, these islands of prosperity may coalesce and concentrate in few locations while they would become far and few between for the rest of the world. For example, in the U.S., the Bay Area has more than its fair share of these locations, while Louisiana may have below average share of these. Latin America shows us our future.
If you look at the governments of Latin America, they are quite stable. Once in a while, chaos will reign in an area like Mexico due to drug lords etc, but eventually the existing power will accommodate the new ones and stability returns. If not pushed by external forces, like the way U.S. use to topple regimes in Latin America, these countries are not going to collapse on their own.
The description of Russia offered by Candide is remarkably similar to the situation in Mexico. A few bright urban areas or tourist destinations, but the bulk of the country resembles the third world. Lots of poverty, lack of industrial civilization, general decay of whatever civilization was once built . . . Watch Y Tu Mama Tambien , the Alfonso Cuaron film. He does a great job contrasting the lives of the main characters' European existence and the pre-industrial world that surrounds them. Once upon a time, the hinterlands of Mexico were generally safe for gueros to drive through, but now they're quite dangerous due to drug routes: now they're impoverished and potentially violent.
Please don't misunderstood what I said. The government will not be toppled on its own, but surely it would not be a fun place to live. In fact it could be quite dangerous.
Spandrell, A few brief points:
Five years? The Austrians have been prophesying an imminent cataclysmic crash of the fiat-Keynesian system for decades already. However much truth and good insight there is in Austrian economics, at this point, even if the crash happens, the Austrian prophets of doom are already in the stopped-clock position.
Breznevism means, basically by definition, stable leftism that isn't progressing towards the left singularity because of entrenched bureaucratic interests, which pay lip service to the official leftist ideology but act in practice as a conservative (in the sense of pro-status quo) force. So while they'll lash out mercilessly on any non-leftist opposition, they'll also suppress any left opposition that threatens their positions by trying to radicalize the system towards the left singularity feedback loop.
You're wrong about this. Law enforcement is an easy problem. Crime and public disorder -- in any population, assuming only a minimal level of competence among the elite -- can be reduced to a negligible level without large expenses, without gulags, and even without mass incarceration. This also remains true no matter how bad things get economically, socially, or in any other way that's fashionable to see as a "root cause" of crime. The current excesses of the American police and prison system are a result of perverse incentives due to the ongoing ideological conflicts within USG, not an inherent difficulty of solving the problem -- much like the quagmire foreign adventures of the U.S. army. (Moldbug is absolutely right that it's only one more mark of the modern all-pervasive ideological insanity that all this is not considered as just plainly obvious.) But the Cathedral also knows all this, in a deep and twisted way. They certainly know it well enough when it's time to unleash the latter part of anarcho-tyranny against their ideological enemies. And the "anarchy" part they can always dial back on, if they perceive it's getting out of control, or even when a group of influential-enough Cathedral insiders want it just out of personal interest (as in New York).
Well, do you think that party elites under Brezhnev shared the lot of common proles and mingled with them? Why would if be different for the Cathedral's own elites? Especially since both systems have suffered from that ugliest aspect of egalitarian ideology -- namely, that inequality is always unavoidable, but it will always be far more cruel and dehumanizing in a system where it's unmentionable and covered by rationalizations, rather than proclaimed proudly. I guess your point might be that these elite enclaves will still be much more vivid and innovative economically, scientifically, and intellectually, than anything under Brezhnev. This is probably true to some degree -- I always point out that the Cathedral is still drawing much strength by selectively permitting some remaining oases of innovation and entrepreneurship, as long as they don't challenge its power and ideology. But I don't see the elite enclaves going beyond the current ideological consensus in any significant way.
I think we overestimate how useful these elite enclaves are. What is most of Silicon Valley if not people trying to find the new network effect platform to help idiots say stupid shit to other idiots faster and then selling ads. Hardly flying cars.
That's the part you see in the public spotlight. The other parts, however, are to a large degree about quiet and abstruse craftsmanship that makes the technical civilization possible. It's nothing to scoff at.
I wonder. Different degrees of lip service probably, going from say NYC to Singapore. Moscow doesn't seem very Cathedralish though, so local politics matter.
Oh really? Well the authorities are surely taking their time on this one. What does 'easy' mean here? If Cathedral beliefs make it impossible for rational law enforcement to happen, well that makes it effectively impossible . I don't see any Western country moving towards any non Gulag, non 1984 level surveillance policy of law enforcement, so I don't see the NAMs behaving any time soon .
The tolerance of widespread underclass (not only NAM) misbehavior is just another feature of the "stable madness," as you aptly described it. The problem could be solved with some basic measures any sane government would promptly do, but the Brezhnevian government is in a tangle of ideological craziness tempered by bureaucratic sclerosis and inertia, so it won't follow these basic sane prescriptions. However, if this misbehavior got out of line to the point where it would threaten the fundamental stability of the system -- and also whenever it erupts locally in a place where some influential elite elements find it inconvenient -- they only need to think of some rationalization for why the sane and effective solution can and should be applied in this particular case, and then proceed to do it. What is currently happening, broadly speaking, is that the underclass misbehavior is rampant, but still far from anything that would threaten the stability of the system. The Cathedral fundamentally loves it, because it provides plenty of opportunity for moralizing and activism, like all other pathology and misfortune that they can blame on insufficient adherence to their ideological principles. Moreover, in many cases, ineffective and bungling law enforcement is the precise analogue of the ineffective and bungling foreign wars of USG, i.e. a case of one branch of government backstabbing and obstructing the other as a tactical move in their long-standing conflict. All this is quite different from the concrete way the Brezhnevian USSR worked, but fundamentally, the difference is smaller than it seems. What matters is that both systems, as mired as they are in bureaucratic sclerosis, are quite capable of lashing out against a real enemy whom the entire bureaucratic elite will tacitly recognize as ideologically hostile or truly dangerous.
I don't think you understand the Cathedral's relationship to the governments arms of force. They don't like or trust each other. Moreover if your talking about them repressing crime, well sure. If your talking about smashing citizen movements like the Tea Party - nothing is sure.
Priests and soldiers do not get along. Communism and Islam had soldier priests, but the Cathedral, like its Christian parent religion, generally does not.
[…] Spandrell triggers a related […]
Another collapse scenario: the periphery kills the core. America's economy depends on USG maintaining control over a good part of the rest of the world; if that control is lost -- say, if the Arab Spring spreads further and goes in a way USG didn't anticipate, or if Israel fails, or if more revolutions come out of South America, or etc., what will happen to the American economy? Another is that the Cathedral gets killed before it collapses. Nationalism spreads in Europe: Fidesz, which already has Hungary's government locked down and handed to itself, veers right to defuse Jobbik, Golden Dawn ends up ruling Greece, populism takes Italy, Germany breaks down under its problem of low-level skinhead terrorism, Generation Identitaire gets somewhere in France; enough things like that and US-EU relations will go down the drain -- or American nationalism will set itself in motion. Another, related possibility is revolution in America. This is a long shot. If it does happen, as I pointed out in my latest post, it'll look vaguely Marxist (proletariat takes up arms against the bourgeoisie and lumpens) while scaring the shit out of every currently existing 'Marxist' in America.
The Arab Spring is killing Egypt, and the fallout will be ugly, but how dependent is the world economy in any third world hellhole? If we can get minerals out from Zaire, no revolution anywhere is going to stop the flow. Revolutionaries need the money too. I'll drown myself in champagne if the EU collapses, but Vladimir is right that nationalism is still way, way weaker than the Cathedral. By several orders of magnitude really.
My position is still that collapse is unlikely in the next decade and past that there's not enough information to say. But if collapse happens soon, those are some ways it could happen.
I don't think it would be possible for the periphery to kill the core, as nydwracu suggests. America's economy is based on control of world trading routes, not other states. And the U.S. is the only country in the world that has warm-water ports on both major oceans and a true blue-water navy capable of patrolling both oceans. Look at a map of global shipping sometime. The periphery (which you're using in the world systems sense of the term) can't possibly bring down the U.S., because any reduction in global trade hits the periphery first and hardest, and every other country is more dependent on that trade than the U.S., which has the largest domestic market in the world. Peripheral politicians and their allies in the core often try to do this, which always ends up hurting the periphery more. Of course it's possible to blame this on the U.S. and gain political power, but that doesn't change the economic reality. Any real economic collapse (as opposed to severe depression) in the U.S. would first be preceded by a political collapse, which would include failure to maintain the naval shipping routes on which the entire world depends for trade. Of course a financial collapse could trigger this, as would a deliberate political defunding of blue water naval forces. (This is, of course, exactly what happened to Rome: having turned the Mediterranean into a Roman lake, they decided there wasn't any use in maintaining naval forces against a non-existent threat. When the Roman navy became weak enough, they discovered the threats did exist, but it was too late.) There isn't any other militarized economy in the world anywhere near capable of taking over the U.S. role in global trade, so the result of losing U.S. hegemony of naval trade routes would be widespread collapse and anarchy, or at best a hemispheric division with separate hegemons in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. Overall I think spandrell's scenario of urban enclaves surrounded by chaos is realistic but the prediction of what they would look like is overly optimistic. People who live in cities tend to be somewhat obtuse regarding what it takes to keep one working. An urban center requires a large and stable periphery (which I'm now using in the von Thunen sense of the term) to support it; it's not just a matter of going out and extracting resources, which is impossible without some kind of order in the area from which you are extracting. Techno-urban centers have always been the least stable social organizations in any human society, and the first to collapse given any major economic upheaval. It's more likely that a slow collapse will result in increasingly violent repression of the periphery combined with increasing transfer payments to the urban underclass. These are not sustainable when combined, and either way eventually the necessary transfers from the periphery will decline too much and the urban systems will collapse. The basis of modern civilization is not found in the techno-urban city, but in the agrarian rural farm. Spandrell's is a rosy scenario in which urban centers continue to be supported, increasingly inefficiently, by the slowly declining rural periphery which doesn't have much choice in where it sells surplus production. Where you see real rapid decline is when food doesn't get from where it is produced to where it is consumed. Expect cannibalism.
My observation is that birds of a feather like to flock together, and elites like to form exclusive and selective institutions, but have become global. Their loyalties have shifted from locality, community, ethnicity, or nation to, well, Davos - the self-congratulating global society of other global elites, and so now the trans-national jet set shares the same set of trans-nationally-focused institutions. The inevitable result of these tendencies is to converge, and form enclave "cognitive concentrator communities". You could exchange "cognitive" with "capital" or "communities" with "corridors" or "cities". All the c's are correlated. In fact, when most cities are trying to figure out how to "revitalize", establishing one of these C3's is precisely what they are trying to establish - and all the positive and growth-amplifying externalities that go along with it. And then they get Urban Planning "Big-Idea" consultants like Richard Florida to tell them it's all about being really attractive to artistically creative gays. Or something. Sailer points out correctly that Florida's got cause and effect backwards, a common swindle when things are correlated, but which doesn't stop him from earning a small fortune indirectly from the taxpayer every time he gives his powerpoint presentation. But, while they effectively live that way in many countries, no elite wants to feel like they're living inside a fortress under siege by hinterland barbarians. And no elite likes to be away that they are a separated lesser-elite compared to that greater elite over there. So they want to join - and especially to have their children join - the greater elite, and treat their own fortress as merely an outpost to of the Great Empire. You are merely "posted" there, temporarily, but you "belong" to the _true_Elite class. So, yeah, a few islands of orderly, productive elite-ness in a vast sea of cross-fertilized perma-underclass-ness. Sort of an opposite-moral-valence "Hunger Games".
This is one of those brilliant comments for which it's completely unjust to remain buried in a comment section. You really should start publishing your thoughts in your own blog.
"His take is that the Cathedral has uncontested religious hegemony, and as long as it has it, the fabric of the state, and the serfs we call society, cannot collapse." They don't though. I think the principle is correct and they do have uncontested religious hegemony over the *white* population but they're replacing the white population. There may be some elements of the non-white population that have swallowed the same line but if there are you don't meet any in the urban blight. All the non-white groups on the lower half of the social scale are clan, tribe or close equivalent all the way and they're becoming the majority. By using the demographic data of those Californian cities that have already gone bankrupt it's probably even possible to figure out an equation for the exact collapse point based on the minimum viable white percentage of the total population precisely because only white people accept the hegemony. . inflation Inflation comes when the money they create is spent or loaned out. At the moment most of the money-printing is just being used to fill the trillion dollar black holes inside the banks. It's what happens if/when they ever fill those black holes that'll be interesting.
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